An unsettled week, turning colder

Low pressure is firmly in charge, with sunny spells and showers throughout. There will be some heavy showers and thunderstorms at times for central, and particularly southern areas of the UK, until midweek.

A Yellow National Severe Weather Warning for thunderstorms has been issued for parts of southern England and south Wales from 4pm today (Monday) until midnight.

Frank Saunders is a Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office and said: “Areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms will move northwards across southern parts of England and Wales later this afternoon before clearing northwards overnight.

“It’s possible that some places could see 20-30mm of rain within two to three hours, with a small chance that a few places could receive 40mm.

“Thunderstorms are most likely for south-facing coastal districts, and hail and some strong gusts of wind could accompany the heaviest showers and thunderstorms.”

Tuesday will be another day of sunshine and showers. Further heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected across central and southern areas of the UK, the areas affected perhaps overlapping those where heavy rain falls this evening. This overlap increases the chance of some surface water issues, particularly on roads. A longer period of heavy rain is also expected over parts of southeast Scotland and northeast England later on Tuesday through to Wednesday.

Further warnings are possible until mid-week as rain falls on already wet ground, but then the risk of flooding should reduce.

Will ex-Hurricane Kirk affect us?

We have been keeping a close eye on the track of ex-Hurricane Kirk as it travels across the Atlantic. There is increasing confidence now that it will track to the south of the UK, bringing heavy rains and strong winds to northern France. Although north and south shifts of the systems track remain possible, the threat of significant impacts to the UK from this system are now much reduced.

Turning colder as the week progresses

The rest of the week continues to look unsettled, with rain and showers affecting most areas at times, but probably less heavy and less widespread overall.

Things also look to turn colder, with temperatures dipping from Wednesday in the north and all areas experiencing below average temperatures from Thursday. Night frosts are expected for some regions, and snow is possible for the higher mountains of Scotland.

Stay up to date

You can find the latest forecast on our website, on YouTube, by following us on X and Facebook, as well as on our mobile app which is available for iPhone from the App store and for Android from the Google Play store.